Jun 08, · AI (Artificial Intelligence) chipmaker Hailo announced its partnership with Lanner Electronics, a global pioneer in the design and manufacturing of intelligent edge computing appliances, to launch groundbreaking AI inference solutions for real-time computer vision at the edge Aug 25, · This summary sheet defines and gives examples of situational crime prevention, environmental crime prevention and social/ community crime prevention strategies Situational Crime Prevention Includes strategies which focus on the specific point at which potential victims and criminals come together, making it harder for the criminal to commit crime Apr 22, · Crime Prevention Research Center, “Updated: Mass Public Shootings Keep Occurring in Gun-Free Zones: 94% of Attacks Since ,” June 15, a. Crime Prevention Research Center, “States That Allow Teachers and School Staff to Carry Guns,” October 9, b
Crime Prevention and Control Strategies – ReviseSociology
Summary: Evidence that shall-issue concealed-carry laws may increase violent crime is limited. Evidence for the effect of shall-issue laws on total homicides, firearm homicides, robberies, assaults, and rapes is inconclusive. An explosion of research into the effects of shall-issue laws on violent crime was triggered in by the publication of analyses using county-level data from to Using these data, Lott and Mustard concluded that states implementing shall-issue laws saw significant decreases in rates of violent crime, murder, rape, and assault, situational crime cctv.
Their "more guns, situational crime cctv, less crime" conclusion was immediately controversial and situational crime cctv to a proliferation of studies exploring the robustness of the study's findings to alternate model specifications and to improvements or expansions to the data series.
The table situational crime cctv lists studies from this early period of responses to Lott and Mustardas well as their counter-responses. Two important reviews of the scientific literature on gun policy effects—one by the National Research Council NRCa part of the National Academy of Sciences NRC,and one by the Community Preventive Services Task Force, established by the U.
Department of Health and Human Services Hahn et al. In their review of existing studies examining shall-issue laws, Hahn et al. NRC reviewed much of the same literature and reanalyzed data that were common to many of these analyses: a panel data set originally spanning —, then expanded through After reviewing many of situational crime cctv studies listed in the table below, the NRC panel, with one member dissenting, concluded:.
Some studies find that right-to-carry laws reduce violent crime, others find that the effects are negligible, and still others find that such laws increase violent crime. The committee concludes that it is not possible to reach any scientifically supported conclusion because of a the sensitivity of the empirical results to seemingly minor changes in model specification, b a lack of robustness of the results to the inclusion of more recent years of data during which there were many more law changes than in the earlier periodand c the statistical imprecision of the results.
The evidence to date does not adequately indicate either the sign or the magnitude of a causal link between the passage of right-to-carry laws and crime rates.
Furthermore, this uncertainty is not likely to be resolved with the existing data and methods. If situational crime cctv headway is to be made, in the situational crime cctv judgment, situational crime cctv, new analytical approaches and data are needed. a These studies are treated in our analysis as being superseded by later studies by the same authors.
b This same paper was earlier circulated as Lott, Plassmann, and Whitley In addition to the sensitivity of results to minor changes in model specification noted by the NRC report, these early studies suffered from multiple serious problems with data and methodology that lead us to discount their value for informing this synthesis of evidence on the effects of shall-issue laws.
These problems include the following:. Finally, we regard a majority of these early studies as having been superseded by later work by the same authors that improved upon their earlier contributions to this literature.
Situational crime cctv a result, situational crime cctv, we focus on their later efforts to evaluate the effect of shall-issue situational crime cctv. We first describe studies published since that aimed to estimate the effects of concealed-carry laws on violent crime using county-level data. We then turn to studies that situational crime cctv on state-level data, then studies that employed city-level data. We conclude by discussing results from a set of studies in which the objective was not to identify the effects of shall-issue laws but that nonetheless present estimates that may be considered part of the evidence base for how concealed-carry policies influence violent crime outcomes e.
Many important shortcomings of county-level crime data identified through the early studies of shall-issue laws see the table above resulted from the fact that large numbers of county police agencies do not report crime statistics to the Federal Bureau of Investigation FBI.
Moreover, the way that county crime statistics address these missing data changed abruptly in the early s, making data from the earlier part of the series not comparable with later data, according to the National Archive of Criminal Justice Data undated. Nevertheless, several analyses have continued to use county-level crime data to evaluate law situational crime cctv, or they have used homicide data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDC 's National Vital Statistics System, which has less of a problem with missing data Loftin, McDowall, and Fetzer, Roberts used the FBI's Supplementary Homicide Reports to analyze the effect of shall-issue laws on intimate partner homicide rates using monthly county-level data spanning — The author found that the more-restrictive may-issue laws significantly increased intimate partner total homicides by 71 percent compared with shall-issue laws, but may-issue compared with shall-issue laws had an uncertain effect on intimate partner firearm homicides.
The author also found uncertain effects of concealed-carry bans compared with shall-issue laws on either overall or firearm-related intimate partner homicides. However, situational crime cctv, neither analysis clustered standard errors at the state level, so serial correlation that was unaccounted for in the panel data likely resulted in underestimated standard errors and correspondingly misleading tests of statistical significance.
Aneja, Donohue, and Zhang analyzed the county-level data set used in Situational crime cctvextended throughand state-level data through situational crime cctv The authors corrected the NRC analyses for several errors that they identified, including data-coding errors related to the timing of shall-issue legislation, an endogenous control variable arrest rateand a failure to cluster standard errors at the state level.
The authors argued that the decision in NRC not to cluster the standard errors of the county-level analyses at the state level was incorrect and showed that confidence intervals CIs were badly misestimated when clustering was not accounted for. In their preferred county-level specification including state trend effects, they found no statistically significant effects of shall-issue laws on either the level or trend of any of seven crime rates, situational crime cctv, and they found only one suggestive effect across the 14 effects they tested.
Moody et al. The revised hybrid model results in Moody et al. They found no significant association between shall-issue laws and either assault or robbery. The fact that their model predicted a given outcome better than the Aneja, Donohue, and Zhang model is not sufficient to demonstrate the claim that the latter's model suffered from omitted-variable bias or that the model preferred by Moody et al.
An overfit model can predict the data exceptionally situational crime cctv while producing biased and unreliable coefficient estimates, situational crime cctv. Using county-level panel data spanning —, Durlauf, situational crime cctv, Navarro, and Rivers examined the sensitivity of analyses that estimate the relationship between shall-issue laws and violent crime. They reported that use of population weights may lead to inefficient estimates and upward biases in estimates of the effect of shall-issue laws on crime.
In addition, they found that hybrid or spline models are preferred to dummy models and that models that allow for heterogeneity in the effect of laws including effects that vary with region, rates of gun ownership, and the level of urbanization in an area outperform models that do not allow for variation in effects.
For the spline model specifications that the authors assessed to perform best for the outcome of violent crime, they estimated that shall-issue laws increase violent crime in the first year after law passage and that violent crime continues to increase in subsequent years. The authors concluded that, overall, there was substantial variation in the estimated effects for each model across the model space analyzed and, thus, there was little evidence that shall-issue laws generate either an increase or a decrease in crime on average.
Crifasi et al. Using a Poisson model that included year situational crime cctv effects, random effects for counties, and county-level demographic and economic covariates, the authors found that shall-issue laws were associated with a significant increase in firearm homicide rates.
Specifically, situational crime cctv, after implementing these laws, counties would be expected to see 1. The authors also included a comparison outcome, nonfirearm homicides, on the theory that, if the effect of shall-issue laws is correctly estimated, it should be found only for firearm homicides, not nonfirearm homicides.
The paper did not describe any corrections for serial correlation in the data used, without which incorrect claims of statistical significance would be expected to proliferate Schell, Griffin, and Morral, ; Aneja, Donohue, and Zhang, ; Helland and Tabarrok, Hepburn et al, situational crime cctv.
Using a negative binomial model with two-way fixed effects and controlling for demographic and economic variables, including a proxy for gun ownership, the authors found uncertain effects for shall-issue laws on state homicide rates. Estimated effects remained uncertain in subgroup analyses of adults aged 25 or older and of white men aged 35 or older see the first figure below. Rosengart et al. One limitation was that the data covered only —, and other studies have shown the sensitivity of results to shorter periods, partly because shorter periods include observation of fewer states that have adopted shall-issue laws.
The policy variable was specified as a dummy variable indicating that a shall-issue law was or was not in place. The authors found suggestive effects that shall-issue laws increased firearm and total homicide rates.
French and Heagerty tested the sensitivity of these results and similarly concluded that shall-issue laws had a suggestive effect consistent with the laws increasing firearm-related homicide rates, although estimates varied across specifications. However, the Rosengart et al. Martin and Legault demonstrated that Situational crime cctv used incorrect state crime rate estimates that differed substantially from official FBI state estimates.
They replicated Lott 's model despite misgivings about its specification to demonstrate that the effects Lott reported were sensitive to this measurement error, situational crime cctv. In their replication exercise using state-level crime data from the FBI's Uniform Crime Reports spanning —, Martin and Legault 's estimates showed that shall-issue laws significantly reduced total violent crime and, specifically, aggravated assault.
They found only suggestive effects that the laws reduced rates of robbery and murder, as well as uncertain effects on rape see the second figure below. However, as with Lottthe authors did not statistically adjust for serial correlation in the panel data, and the model's ratio of estimated parameters to observations was less than one to ten, meaning the model may have been overfit, and thus its parameter estimates and their CIs may be unreliable.
Grambsch conducted a state-level analysis of total murder rates relative to the U. murder rate from to using the 25 states that passed shall-issue laws between and She found a selection effect among states adopting shall-issue laws—namely, that states that passed shall-issue laws in this period experienced an increasing trend in murder rates prior to adoption relative to other states.
Her estimates showed that, after controlling for regression to the mean, there was either an uncertain effect or a significant positive effect of shall-issue laws on relative murder rates i.
However, the model finding significant effects the state fixed-effects model had fewer than ten observations per estimated parameter, meaning the model may have been overfit, which can lead to unreliable estimates and standard errors, situational crime cctv. Furthermore, neither model included adjustments for serial correlation in the panel data. Using a panel of state data, Lott provided an update of his earlier analyses examining the effect of shall-issue laws on violent crime.
His preferred specification included a set of dummy variables that situational crime cctv different time intervals before and after shall-issue legislation was in effect for situational crime cctv that passed such legislation.
Many of Lott's modeling results were presented as figures and did not indicate statistical significance.
Detailed results were provided only for an analysis of homicide rates. These included information on the statistical significance of each coefficient in the model but not for a test comparing post-implementation time intervals with pre-implementation time intervals. Lott interpreted the pattern of effects as demonstrating that homicides declined significantly after implementation of shall-issue laws, but he did not provide test statistics or sufficient description to clarify what specific effect was observed.
The author also included coefficients and situational crime cctv statistical significance from dummy and spline models similar to those from his earlier work, but he did not include standard errors or test statistics.
All of the preferred models appear to have had a ratio of estimated parameters to observations that was less than one to ten, meaning the model may have been overfit, and thus the reported estimates and their CIs may be unreliable. Similarly, situational crime cctv does not appear that Lott used any adjustments for serial correlation in his panel data, so some of the effects reported as statistically significant might not be after correcting these analyses Schell, Griffin, and Morral, ; Aneja, Donohue, situational crime cctv, and Zhang, ; Helland and Tabarrok, DeSimone, Markowitz, and Xu evaluated the effects of child-access prevention laws on nonfatal injuries using data from tobut they included sensitivity analyses that controlled for shall-issue laws.
Using fixed-effects Poisson regression models, situational crime cctv, they found that shall-issue laws were significantly associated with firearm assault injuries for children under age 18, as well as for adults. Specifically, their estimate suggests that, after a state implemented a shall-issue law, assault injury rates were more than double what would have been expected without the law see situational crime cctv second figure belowwhich would be extraordinary if true.
However, the estimated effects of shall-issue laws in this study were based primarily on implementation in one state that changed its law during the study time frame Arizona ; thus, the study offers little evidence that the observed effects are due to the change in the law rather than to other factors affecting the state's assault rate that occurred around the same time the law was changed. Webster, Crifasi, and Vernick analyzed state-level data from tousing generalized least-squares regression models to estimate the effect of shall-issue laws on age-adjusted homicide rates.
They found suggestive effects indicating an association between the implementation of shall-issue laws and a percent increase in rates of nonfirearm homicide, a 6-percent increase in rates of total homicide, and an percent increase in rates of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter.
The statistical model used to arrive at these results used a large number of estimated parameters relative to observations a ratio of about one to eightmeaning the model may have been overfit, and thus its estimates and their apparent statistical significance could provide little generalizable information about the true causal effects of shall-issue laws, situational crime cctv.
Gius examined the effect of shall-issue laws on gun-related murder rates using state-level data from to He found that states with may-issue or more-restrictive policies had higher gun-related murder rates than shall-issue states.
Relative to states with shall-issue laws, states with more-restrictive firearm-carry policies had rates of firearm homicide situational crime cctv were 11 percent higher see the second figure below. However, this model did not statistically adjust for the known serial correlation in these panel data, which has been shown to result in misleadingly small standard situational crime cctv Schell, Griffin, and Morral, ; Situational crime cctv, Donohue, and Zhang, ; Helland and Tabarrok, situational crime cctv, For this reason, the apparently significant effect observed in this study could be invalid.
Using their preferred specification with state-level data from situational crime cctv and a dummy, spline, or hybrid specification of shall-issue laws without state trends, Aneja, Donohue, and Zhang found suggestive evidence that shall-issue laws increase assaults by 8 percent see the first figure below.
In the dummy specification, shall-issue laws significantly increased rape by 12 percent, although estimates of this effect from the spline model were uncertain. The authors also found suggestive evidence that shall-issue laws increased rates of robbery, although estimates again became uncertain in other specifications. Effects of shall-issue laws on murder rates were uncertain. The authors tested the sensitivity of their results to less-parsimonious including the Lott and Mustard [] specification and more-parsimonious demographic specifications; the inclusion of state-specific time trends; the inclusion or exclusion of years that were likely to be influenced by the crack cocaine epidemic, which affected crime rates; and the specification of the policy variable situational crime cctv, spline, hybrid.
The authors noted that their results, which showed that the significance and sign of estimated effects varied substantially depending on the specification employed, underscored the sensitivity of gun-crime modeling estimates to modeling decisions. Foremost, the studies critiqued the decision to treat models without state-specific trends as the preferred ones, situational crime cctv.
Situational Crime Prevention
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The National Capital Region Threat Intelligence Consortium (NTIC) employs an all-crimes, all-hazards approach and is based in the District of Columbia’s Homeland Security and Emergency Management Agency. The NTIC works in partnership with fusion centers in Maryland and Virginia, as well as the federal government, to conduct regional analysis and share information on terrorism, crime, Jun 29, · ISS World Middle East and Africa is the world's largest gathering of Regional Law Enforcement, Intelligence and Homeland Security Analysts, Telecoms as well as Financial Crime Investigators responsible for Cyber Crime Investigation, Electronic Surveillance and Intelligence Gathering. ISS World Programs present the Routine Activity Theory FERNANDO MIRÓ Routine activity theory, first formulated by Lawrence E. Cohen and Marcus Felson () andlaterdevelopedbyFelson,isoneofthemost
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